The UK convenience market is forecast to reach a value of £45.2bn in 2022, growth of +3.2% versus 2021, according to the new Lumina Intelligence UK Convenience Market Report 2022.

This follows a small decline in 2021 of -0.8%, as market growth slowed as a result of hospitality reopening and coronavirus restrictions easing.

The market is also expected to see positive, albeit modest, outlet growth at +0.6%, with a post pandemic property boom creating greater prospects for operators to expand.

Co-operatives & convenience multiples set to outperform the market
Co-operatives and convenience multiples are expected to grow turnover by +5.6% and +3.8% in 2022, respectively. This growth will be underpinned by investment in store refits and physical expansion, as well as developments in delivery services.

Forecourts (+1.6%), symbol groups (+2.9%) and unaffiliated independents (+1.7%) are all also expected to see growth, but at a slower rate to the total convenience market.

Shoppers revert to pre-pandemic patterns
The percentage of UK adults that have had a convenience occasion (delivery, in-store or click & collect) stabilised at 64% in May 2022, with basket spend and basket size down 10.5% to £7.18 and 15.6% to 2.7 items year-on-year, respectively.

Shoppers are reverting back to pre-pandemic patterns. Planned top up missions are down -7.9ppts year on year, stabilising following a pandemic driven boost. However, positively, younger consumers traditionally under-performing in convenience have been retained year on year.

Delivery accounts for 7% of all c-store occasions
The pandemic accelerated growth in delivered convenience store occasions, with shoppers limiting the need to leave home and visit crowded places. Despite restrictions easing, delivery occasions have only declined by -1.6ppts year-on-year and now account for 6.8% of total convenience occasions.

The delivered route to market attracts valuable shoppers with higher frequency (+37%), basket sizes (+48%) and average spends (+134%) versus in-store shoppers.

(source: https://www.lumina-intelligence.com/, image: https://spar-international.com/)